Yevgeny Prigozhin May Have Flown to Belarus
A business jet linked to Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin flew to Belarus from Russia on Tuesday, June 27, 2023, following the uprising that has dealt the biggest blow to President Vladimir Putin's authority since he came to power more than 23 years ago.
Putin initially vowed to crush the uprising, comparing it to the wartime chaos that ushered in the 1917 revolution and then the civil war.
But hours later, an agreement was reached to allow Prigozhin and some of his soldiers to go to Belarus.
Prigozhin, a 62-year-old former petty thief who rose to become Russia's most powerful mercenary, was last seen in public when he left the southern Russian city of Rostov on Saturday, shaking hands and insinuating that he had "entertained" people.
Flightradar24 showed the business jet flying to Belarus on Tuesday morning.
The Embraer Legacy 600 left the Rostov region at 02.32 GMT and began its descent at 04.20 GMT near Minsk.
It is unclear whether the plane actually landed.
The aircraft identification code matched the jet code linked by the United States to Autolex Transport and attributed to Prigozhin by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he had no information about Prigozhin's location, although he hoped all parties to the deal that ended the rebellion would stick to theirs.
The signal from the plane was not shown by Flightradar after it reached an altitude of 747 meters, not far from the Machulishchy air base, just south of the Belarusian capital, Minsk.
Turning off the transponder is a common tactic to avoid tracking the exact landing site.
Under a deal brokered by Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko on Saturday that abruptly put down an uprising by Wagner Group warriors, Prigozhin, the founder of the mercenary force, was ordered to move to Belarus.
In a speech late on Monday, Putin said the leaders of what he called an "armed uprising" had betrayed Russia and the Russian people but thanked the army, law enforcement, and special services for standing up to the rebels.
Prigozhin's "march for justice", which he says is aimed at solving problems with Putin's military top brass, whom he views as treasonous and corrupt, has raised the prospect of chaos in Russia while hurting Putin's reputation as an unchallenged leader.
The uprising of the Wagner Group in Russia led by Yevgeny Prigozhin is suspected of having a set agenda, according to analyst Michael Bociurkiw of the Atlantic Council.
Quoting Sky.com, Bociurkiw thinks Prigozhin's exile to Belarus could hide future plans for events.
"We cannot ignore the possibility that this is actually an agenda set by the Kremlin, perhaps to purge high-ranking officials or test the loyalty of people in the military," he said on June 27, 2023.
Facts About The Wagner Group
1. The Wagner Embryo
Quoting Sergey Sukhankin's article, Russian PMCs in the Syrian Civil War: From Slavonic Corps to Wagner Group and Beyond, the Wagner Group started as a small corps of the Slavonic Corps.
The force was formed by former Russian elite soldier Dmitry Utkin while he was working for the private military company Moran Security Group.
2. Founder Wagner
Although it is currently headed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, according to some sources, the Wagner Group was founded by Dmitry Utkin.
He is a former Commander of the 2nd Separate Special Forces Brigade, or Spetsnaz Special Forces Unit, which is under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defense.
3. Name Wagner
The exact origins of the name Wagner are still a mystery.
But, citing the Economist, Wagner is believed to be taken from the name of Adolf Hitler's favorite German composer, Richard Wagner.
Dmitry Utkin's naming of Wagner is believed to have arisen from his being a neo-Nazi.
4. The Wagner Group's Footsteps
The Wagner Group is responsible for hosting mercenaries working for private military companies.
The Wagner Group played a significant role in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a role marked by the crisis in Crimea, the seizure of the Donbass, and most recently the conquest of Bakhmut.
The Wagner Group is also suspected of having a role in involvement in conflicts belonging to Russia, such as in Syria, South Sudan, and Mali.
Prigozhin is now living in Belarus after striking a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but many questions remain unanswered.
Launching from Sky.com, Bociurkiw also said that Prigozhin's exile to Belarus could hide plans for deadly events in the future.
"We cannot discount the possibility that this is actually an agenda set up by the Kremlin, perhaps to purge high-ranking officials or test the loyalty of people in the military," said Bociurkiw on June 27, 2023.
Bociurkiw then implied that Prigozhin might be preparing something in Belarus after events that ended too quickly and a bit neatly.
The analyst then warned that the Wagner leader was very strong, with an army larger than the militaries of several medium-sized countries in Europe.
What's more, Prigozhin controls extraordinary resources in Africa that generate up to a billion dollars a year from mining.
"The border area between Belarus and Ukraine is very porous.
It could be used for another push against Kyiv.
With Prigozhin there, his tactics might be quite lethal," concluded Bociurkiw.
In fact, there is controversy over whether Prigozhin was actually exiled to Belarus or not.
After two brief days of uprisings over the weekend, Russia is still trying to recover from the turmoil.
Meanwhile, there has been no further news from Putin or Prigozhin.
"Has Prigozhin gone to Belarus? What will he do there? Is he humiliated? Or was this really a trick by the Kremlin to put Prigozhin in Belarus and let him put some kind of pressure on Kyiv again? Isn't that actually a smart move?" Said a Moscow correspondent, Diana Magnay.
However, Magnay admits that it is difficult to interpret the intent of the series of decisions taken given that White looked so weak on the last day of the rebellion.
The president started the day by declaring that any treason would be punished severely, then gave Prigozhin a free pass to Belarus, and ended by pardoning all of Wagner's soldiers who had rebelled.
Magnay said that while the population of Moscow was shaken by the Wagner uprising, the West may have been too.
"The West is definitely not Putin's friend, but they also don't want to see Russia collapse, especially when it's not yet clear who will replace Putin as president," he said.
A further question relates to whether Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu will stay in office after Prigozhin's attempted ouster.
There is a possibility that Putin will change his top military command at some point, but not in the near future.
Putin doesn't want to seem too depressed, and on the other hand, he also likes Shoigu.
